The world has never been more in conflict, during my lifetime, than it is today. But what does this mean for developing countries?
Don’t get me wrong, there have always been wars.
As the Second World War drew to a close in Europe, the conflicts in Korea and Vietnam were just getting started. As these wars drew to a close, the Cold War had set off a bunch of proxy conflicts and brought the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation.
The tail end of the Cold War seemed like the start of a new era of global peace and prosperity. But the regions impacted by proxy wars became a breeding ground for new insurgencies.
We saw this in Afghanistan, where decades of Cold War-driven conflict opened the door to extremist groups. In Central America, Cold War interventions destabilized governments and contributed to cycles of migration and economic hardship that persist today.
Today, Russia is still in Ukraine, and tensions remain high between Iran and Israel.
Through it all, leaders in poor countries have had to make do, balancing the interests of wealthier, more powerful nations just to stay afloat. We have to answer impossible questions about the future.
If the US goes to war with China, will poor countries which rely substantially on both markets be able to maintain these crucial trade relationships?
As the Russian war in Ukraine continues, how do food-insecure nations navigate shifting regional trade patterns to feed their people? Rising grain prices and disrupted Black Sea shipping routes have already worsened hunger in parts of Africa and the Middle East.
If the developing world wants to maintain and accelerate the pace of job creation and economic development, we will need to manage these seismic disruptions while staying focused on employment and investment.
So, how do we position ourselves in this context?
I wrote about the opportunities that President Trump’s trade policies might create for suppliers in the developing world in a previous post.
Large economies like India and Mexico are already reaping the benefits of new tariffs between the US and China, which have opened new gaps in supply chains.
For example, Mexico has seen a surge in foreign investment in auto parts and electronics manufacturing, while India is gaining traction as a preferred location for smartphone assembly and pharmaceutical production.
Vietnam, too, has become a key exporter of semiconductors and textiles to U.S. markets, stepping into roles once dominated by China.
I continue to call for more efforts to attract foreign direct investment so that developing nations can take advantage of these gaps.
In Haiti, for instance, the expansion of industrial parks like Caracol has the potential to position the country as a hub for light manufacturing, especially in textiles.
In Ethiopia, industrial parks such as Hawassa are drawing investment in garment production by offering favorable trade terms under AGOA and targeted incentives to global brands.
That said, we can’t think manufacturing is the whole picture. Some of the most significant opportunities for economic development in poor countries will be in renewable energy and IT services.
In Senegal, investments in wind and solar are helping the country move toward energy independence while creating new jobs.
In Rwanda, government-backed coding academies are training youth for remote tech jobs, and companies like Andela are connecting African developers with clients in Europe and North America.
Middle-income nations are going to see increased development of AI tools, developed and trained with regional considerations—from language models in Swahili and Yoruba to logistics systems tailored for fragmented road networks.
Forestry, tourism, and other industries represent even more ways that developing and developed countries can partner to create win-win economic relationships.
In Costa Rica, forest conservation programs have turned biodiversity into a source of national income through eco-tourism, while also preserving natural resources.
In Ghana, reforestation projects supported by carbon credit programs have created rural employment while attracting foreign environmental investment.
And in Haiti, initiatives like community-run eco-lodges in Jacmel and Île-à-Vache offer models for sustainable tourism that blend job creation with cultural preservation.
Despite the uncertainty, there’s real opportunity ahead.
Developing countries have shown time and again that they can adapt, innovate, and lead—especially when global systems shift. If we stay focused on smart investment, strategic partnerships, and inclusive growth, we can not only weather this moment—we can emerge stronger, more connected, and more competitive than ever.
References
(2024, September 11). Foreign investment in auto parts in Mexico grows 15% during the first half of 2024. LATAM FDI. https://www.latamfdi.com/foreign-investment-in-auto-parts/
Allen‑Ebrahimian, B. (2022, January 25). What the U.S. should learn from Cold War history. Axios. Retrieved from https://www.axios.com/2022/01/25/learning-from-cold-war-china-russia
Bhattarai, A. (2025, June 30). Trump wants America to make iPhones. Here’s how India is doing it. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/30/business/apple-foxconn-india.html
Charles, J. (2024, December 23). Haiti hopes for U.S. duty‑free renewal before Congress session ends. Miami Herald. Retrieved from https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article297075139.html
Dixon, H. (2024, October 14). Old theories offer new insight into global rivalry. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/old-theories-offer-new-insight-into-global-rivalry-2024-10-14/
Dushime, A. (2025, April 18). What role will private equity play in Africa’s AI future? World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/rethinking-private-equity-for-africas-ai-driven-future/
Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., Khandelwal, A., & Taglioni, D. (2022, April). How the U.S.–China trade war affected the rest of the world (NBER Digest). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/digest/202204/how-us-china-trade-war-affected-rest-world
Jia, N., Xia, Z., Li, Y. et al. The Russia-Ukraine war reduced food production and exports with a disparate geographical impact worldwide. Commun Earth Environ 5, 765 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01915-5
Kumar, Manoj. (2025, June 23). India prioritises national interest in US trade talks, trade ministry source says. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-prioritises-national-interest-us-trade-talks-trade-ministry-source-says-2025-06-23/
Usmani, S. (2025, June 6). Emergence of Vietnam in the global semiconductor supply chain. Modern Diplomacy. Retrieved from https://www.moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/06/emergence-of-vietnam-in-the-global-semiconductor-supply-chain/
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (n.d.). Rwanda – New Investment Code enacted [Investment Policy Monitor]. UNCTAD. Retrieved July 23, 2025, from https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/investment-policy-monitor/measures/3689/new-investment-code-enacted
World Bank. (2025, January 21). Senegal closing on universal electricity access. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2025/01/21/senegal-closing-on-universal-electricity-access